Fundraising through qualified institutional placement (QIP) has revived this year, led by commercial banks, after a lacklustre 2022. According to data compiled by Prime Database, Indian companies have raised Rs 53,070 crore in 2023 so far, of which seven banks - Union Bank of India, Indian Bank, Bank of India, Federal Bank, IDFC First Bank, Bank of Maharashtra, and J&K Bank - account for Rs 21,290 crore, or about 40 per cent. If other financial institutions are included, the figure surges to Rs 26,690 crore.
Global private equity (PE) firms are successfully offloading large equity stakes in domestic companies in the open market, taking advantage of buoyant conditions. Strong domestic liquidity support and an upward trending market have underpinned over a dozen PE exits worth $2.5 billion, data compiled by Business Standard shows. The figures exclude PE exits during maiden share sales and shares sold by strategic investors, such as SoftBank and Ant Group in new-age companies.
The domestic equity markets are expected to extend gains following the strong showing of the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the state elections - a crucial precursor to the general elections in May. The BJP decisively secured victories in three of the four key states - Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh. While the battles in these three states were closely contested, the scale of the BJP's triumph has surprised many, heightening expectations for regime continuity in 2024 - a positive catalyst for the markets.
India Inc's net profit as a percentage of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) is just shy of reaching 5 per cent, bolstered by strong earnings growth in the second quarter of 2023-24. Analysts interpret this as an indication that a corporate profit upcycle is in progress, with projections suggesting that this share could exceed 8 per cent within the next five years, driven by bullish earnings growth expectations. "We believe we are only halfway through a profit cycle, with the profit share in GDP rising from a low of 2 per cent in 2020 to about 5 per cent currently, and likely heading to 8 per cent in the coming four to five years. "This implies about 20 per cent compounding of earnings growth. "Underscoring this forecast is the start of a new private capex cycle, under-geared balance sheets, a healthy banking system, lower corporate tax rates, improving terms of trade, and structural consumption demand outlook albeit somewhat offset by likely consolidation in government deficit," said Ridham Desai, managing director, head of research, Morgan Stanley India in a note.
Equity markets rallied after softer-than-expected inflation data in the US and UK rekindled hopes of the end of the rate-hiking cycle by major central banks. The soft inflation reading drove down bond yields and the US dollar, whetting the appetite for risky assets. The 10-year US bond yield fell below 4.5 per cent after topping 5 per cent less than a month ago.
Diwali fireworks are expected to continue on Dalal Street next week, with four companies collectively seeking to mobilise over Rs 6,600 crore through initial public offerings (IPOs). In terms of the amount raised, this is poised to be the busiest week of calendar year 2023. Tata Technologies (Tata Tech), a subsidiary of Tata Motors, could lead the charge with an IPO projected to be over Rs 2,900 crore. This will mark the first maiden share sale by a Tata Group firm in nearly two decades.
'...similar to the 2008 global financial crisis, the 2012 taper tantrum, or the 2018 midcap crash.' 'This could lead to a substantial decline in activity and revenues for the broking industry.' 'When this will happen is uncertain, but as brokers, we must be prepared for such a downturn.'
Domestic investors are tightening their grip on the ownership of listed companies. The gap between the shareholding of domestic institutional investors (DIIs) and foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) narrowed to 13.11 percentage points at the end of the September 2023 quarter. At the peak, the gap was nearly 50 percentage points in March 2015, according to an analysis by Prime Database, a leading provider of data on the capital market.
In the current calendar year, small and medium enterprises (SMEs) have witnessed an impressive surge in initial public offerings (IPOs), surpassing the 2018 record. Over 150 SME IPOs have been introduced to the market, breaking the previous record of 141 set in 2018. According to data from PRIME Database, a primary market tracking firm, 147 companies successfully concluded their debut share sales by the end of October, raising a cumulative Rs 3,727 crore.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have withdrawn Rs 25,305 crore from domestic markets since September. FPIs were net sellers in the first two months of 2023, but from March to August, they purchased equities worth Rs 1.7 trillion. This selling trend has caused the National Stock Exchange Nifty Index to decline by 3.2 per cent from its September highs. FPI selling initially began in September as profit-taking but intensified due to rising US bond yields and uncertainty regarding the rate hike trajectory.
Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) filing continued to be robust in October, signifying the optimism in the initial public offer (IPO) market despite the recent turbulence in equities. In October, 17 companies filed their offer documents for IPOs. The rush in filings has made August-October 2023 the best three-month period for DRHP filings since July-September 2021.
The fees charged by investment banks to manage initial public offerings (IPOs) have increased to an average 3.23 per cent of the issue size this calendar year, the highest since 2020. The average fee is up 8 per cent compared to last year, when it stood at 2.99 per cent. The investment banking fees have increased as the average IPO size has shrunk this year.
As many as 267 of 453 companies from the BSE500 index are trading above their consensus price targets, according to the data compiled by Bloomberg. Not all companies in the BSE500 index are tracked by analysts.
As many as 31 mainboard IPOs raised a cumulative Rs 26,272 crore in this period, according to Prime Database. During the April-September 2007 bull run, 48 IPOs totalling Rs 21,243 crore were launched. The number of deals in H1FY24 was 2.2 times that of the same period of the last fiscal year, but the amount raised was 26 per cent lower.
With the Nifty50 surging past the 20,000 mark, the markets are experiencing a spate of initial public offerings (IPOs) with four issues set to raise over Rs 4,673 crore this week. Another quartet, cumulatively worth Rs 3,000 crore, is expected to launch next week. Companies like RR Kabel, SAMHI Hotels, Zaggle Prepaid Ocean Services, and Yatra Online are set to hit the primary market this week, while Signature Global, Updater Services, Sai Silks (Kalamandir), and Vaibhav Jewellers are slated for next week. This flurry of activity is driven by multiple factors including buoyant market conditions, increased demand for IPOs, and specific rule on the disclosure of quarterly financials.
Water projects firm Vishnu Prakash R Punglia, the 20th company to launch its IPO in the current year, saw its shares closing at a 47 per cent gain over its issue price on Tuesday. Such a huge one-day pop is considered rare; however, it has become the norm this year. The average listing-day gain for these 20 IPOs in 2023 is 34 per cent, and their average gain to date stands at 46 per cent.
Notwithstanding the ongoing decline in equity markets week after week, August has proven to be the most successful since December for initial public offerings (IPOs). In August of this year, six companies have collectively raised approximately Rs 4,269 crore through IPOs.
The benchmark indices are set to end their five-month gaining streak, but the market breadth continues to hold strong So far this month, stocks gaining have outnumbered those declining, a sign that the bulls still have the upper hand, even as the pullback in the S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty indicates otherwise. On the BSE, 2,126 stocks have advanced and 1,955 have declined in August, translating into an advance/decline ratio (ADR) of 1.1.
French banking major BNP Paribas is planning to sell its domestic retail broking unit, Sharekhan, according to news reports on Tuesday. The reports even named leading financial institutions as possible suitors. "We would not be able to comment on the mentioned queries at this time," said a company spokesperson in response to a query from Business Standard seeking clarification on the news item.
After pumping in close to $20 billion in the preceding five months, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have yanked out $220 million from domestic stocks this month. The selling by overseas funds has led to turbulence in the domestic markets, with benchmark indices swinging wildly recently.
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